Empire Politics Speculation

(From Cai Wen)

(Later note from Cai Wen: Commander Sun, of the Illuminated Precincts Dragon Army garrison, did not think that all of this stuff is connected into a giant plan.)

I suspect that the present conspiracy against the Butterfly Kingdom is a part of a larger plan to isolate the Savanna of Tears so that it, or perhaps the whole south of the Empire, can be more easily attacked.

• Takanata's Connections Readings on the subject seem to suggest that the Assassination plan and the Blockade plan were from separate sources, who don't individually understand the larger plan

• Everybody seems to think there was a pretext for the blockade--some sort of insult--but nobody seems immensely clear on what it is. Admittedly, we haven't tried to dig into it, but with such a spectacular gambit, you'd figure it would be trumpeted far and wide

• When Ti Wren sent tribute to end the blockade, in Ship of Gold, the Bad Guy plan of switching in good-but-not-ideal fakes seemed likely to turn the blockade into an invasion. The Savanna Clans' reactions are pretty predictable, because their sense of honor doesn't permit them to back down without some kind of satisfactory conclusion

• Large contingents of the Dragon Army have been sent to put down an alleged riot in the Port of Propitious Voyage, in the northern part of the Hon'eth Arcade. You'd figure that one company would be enough, and the reports are sketchy. It's not immediately clear just how much of the Dragon Army has been distracted by this, but I heard comments over a gambling table in the Illuminated Precincts that the Dragon Army from the eastern part of the empire had entirely missed this "war" between the Savanna and the Butterfly Kingdom while off dealing with the riot

• The ritual targeting Hiro and Hana in The Shadow of the Wall has the feel to me of some massive undertaking targeting the Empire, or at least changing the Way Things Work

• While the Illuminated Precincts are not hostile to the Savanna of Tears (they're too smart to be openly hostile), they're at least on guard at this point

If I slap all of these things up on the wall, fiddle them around a bit, and squint just-so, it looks to me like the Savanna of Tears is being set up for a very mighty fall. You take guys who can't back down from a fight, alienate all of their neighbors, and then...I don't know, but whatever it is, our pleasure at their discomfort may be cut short by the screaming.

Pure speculation, but you heard it here first.