Thwarting the Marked, One
Will we more certainly thwart the Marked in the end by trying to combat their renaming of the Butterfly Kingdom, or by allowing them to do so and preparing to fight them once that is done?
The latter. You think that neither is certain, but the more you focus on "in the end" the more you think that "fight after" is where the greater victories lie, and "fight early" leads more surely to defeat and death.
The Viridian Queen
Can we more likely secure the Viridian Queen's assistance against the Marked by telling her what we know of them freely, or by selling her what we know of them as a secret?
This particular choice has only limited bearing on whether or not you can secure the Viridian Queen's assistance. However, to the extent that it does matter, the "sell her the secrets" path has more chance of going horribly awry, but slightly better results for the non-awry options.
Thwarting the Marked, Two
Will the Marked most quickly be happy with the name of the Butterfly Kingdom if we convince the King to rename it, or if we wait for them to complete their ritual of renaming?
They will be most quickly happy if you wait.
Can we more easily convince Machan Li that the interference with his plans for the Butterfly Kingdom came from Lucky Chang, or from the Bureaucrat Marked?
From the Bureaucrat.
Forward or Back
To most probably interfere with the Marked's plans, should we attempt to reverse the renaming of countries, or attempt to thwart their next step after renaming the countries?
You get the idea that both would work, with the former being more like "interfering," and the latter more like "interfere with the Marked's plans." They are both probable, just the latter is more long term.