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"The outcome of any serious research can only be to make two questions grow where only one grew before." The run begins on the Day of the Early Fox in the Month of the Crane in the eleventh Year of the Bear since the Third Treaty of Houses.

The run takes place in a number of places around the Empire

Previous Run

My dear Lijuan -

I have been looking into Xian's suggestion that the finger-pointing at Xiao Fa was too effective to have been random. Both House Tokai and House Nogi have agents gathering information on the other, and it was not too difficult to make some light information-trading connections to both sides. There is a great deal of tension between the two houses - the animosity seems to be slightly more sourced in House Nogi, but House Tokai is certainly giving as good as it gets. From anecdotal comparisons to past years, I believe that this level of high animosit is recent, and could well be at the instigation of Su Song, who Lord Nogi esteems highly.

Nevertheless, I think that while the "spy report" to Lord Tokai was a result of this increased animosity, it was not itself intended by House Nogi to have the explosive result that it did, for they seem mostly unaware of the result, and were certainly not poised to take advantage of it.

I have also spent some time investigating my own theory (inspired, admittedly, by Xian), that Li the Wanderer could have been involved - that anyone who knew enough to deliberately design the result that took place knew far too much, and had far too delicate a hand in manipulation for it to be Lord Nogi or even Su Song. I must reluctantly conclude that I was mistaken - I have gone out drinking with most of the servants and quite a few of the the guards, and done quite a bit of conversational interrogation, and I do not believe that they are missing as many memories as would be required. I did use one of Xiao Fa's healing potions to avoid some of the worst effects of quite so much drinking - please let him know, and please do let Xian know the results of these investigations.

I think that Xian's logical failure lies in a belief that the confluence of actions which took place to make things go as badly as they did could not be due to coincidence alone, but must have been due to intent. And in normal circumstances, that might be true. But all of you are strongly influenced by the Butterfly, to the extent that coincidence is hardly surprising. Since most of the time, you are victorious in the face of coincidental plot, you see it as *providential* coincidence. But that is more because of your own competence than because of the intentional design of the Butterfly. If there were six inns in town, and one was run by a cabal of bandit cultists, I am confident that the party would randomly choose to stay in that inn, and the villains would likely be put paid to. But if they succeeded in killing one of your number, it would not mean that Butterfly wanted them dead - only that plots are attracted to you, and you to they, like magnets.

Yours,

Zhuai


My dear Lijuan -

Thinking about conspiracies in the Butterfly Meadows led me down a different path than Xian suspected. I do not think that the Incident at the Tokai Estates was one of malign intention, but I began to suspect that Ti Lao's summoning of Kasumi and Deng might have been. It is not beyond the scope of an investigation of Su Song's house to discover enough clues to indicate them, but it would have been a very good investigation, and a very swift one, for the reaction to have come so soon.

On the other hand, to confirm a suspicion can be done much more swiftly than to develop the suspicion in the first place. Su Song would have had reason to guess at the culprits, but he lodged no official complaint (and in fact he has not been back to his estate since he left). Instead, unofficial word - but very persuasive unofficial word - seems to have driven this investigation. They knew who they were looking for, and they were able to confirm it about as quickly as would be expected, and then the results went to His Majesty with great swiftness.

That was the work of Prince Ti Jun, I suspected, and with some work, I was able to confirm it. I did have to use the letter of introduction written by Ti Jun, but I doubt anyone but Merit will begrudge its absence.

You may wish to let Kasumi and Deng know - the King's reaction was no doubt genuine, but it also was provoked.

Also, His Highness is really quite popular among the people - very much so in the Butterfly Meadows, but he is surprisingly well-known elsewhere. The rumors of his having engineered a war against the Savanna in order to avenge the wrongs done to his parents are widely whispered, and have earned him a storied reputation among most of the countries which border the Savanna. Nobody is sure it is true, but everyone likes him for it. You might want to mention that to Xiao Fa.

Yours,

Zhuai


My dear Lijuan -

My investigations into (a lack of) amnesia in House Tokai set me to wondering, and I have spent some time in Tahiti asking similar questions of the house guard and servants. They are, I think, missing some recent memories, though not many. Due to an unfortunate misunderstanding with Captain Izumi when I was investigating whether any party loot was missing, one of the ninja smoke vials is, now, missing (as well as a few other useful items). However, I do not believe that anything else of note is. You may wish to let Merit and Cai Wen know, as I may be avoiding Tahiti for some little time.

It did make me think - if I could make people forget me, what else might that leverage? One thing that struck me is that it is much easier to convince someone to do something a second time than to do it the first time. So, imagine if you will: once a month, you find yourself a tael richer, with a note saying "For confidential services" tucked around the tael. After six months of that, you meet a gentleman who offers you a tael in the confident expectation that you will do thus and so for the seventh time, because you have, of course, long since agreed to this arrangement.

Not a cheery thought.

Yours,

Zhuai


My dear Lijuan -

While I was thinking about the Prince gaining the support of the people, it led me to wonder who else might be gaining the support of who else. Many of the places I looked were not very conclusive, but I did make an introduction of myself to Song Yuanjun. He seems to have made another new friend, one Chang Wuyong, who has apparently proved quite useful in political suggestions and favor-brokering.

As far as I was able to determine, Baron Song has made no unusual bets with or promises to Master Chang, but the latter has certainly spent a lot of effort befriending the good Baron. My guess is that this is to two different ends - Lucky Chang has been cozying up to a number of the nobility lately - his show at the housewarming party won him some credit, though not as much as he had hoped, but he has gained other credit elsewhere, and is playing himself up interestingly as an underdog. However, his attention to Baron Song is particularly noted. I doubt he thinks that the Baron will be able to promise his sister's hand away, but I would not be surprised if he is hoping to turn something into a favor with Min Feng at some point in the future.

I have left one of the Shadow Quills with Baron Song, as I think it may be worthwhile to stay in closer touch with him. You may wish to mention that to Min Feng.

Yours,

Zhuai


My dear Lijuan -

The idea of the Shadow Quills set me to thinking - what a useful ability, to keep tabs on everything that is written. A useful ability, but also perhaps, a distraction.

To that end, with a handful of passes, I headed for the Dragon's Throne, and spent some time laying a few false trails.

The combination of the bureaucracy mechanic and the lack of a bribery mechanic means that everyone uses bureaucracy. All the time. The Mayor probably knows more about what is going on in his city than any spymaster in the history of spies. I do not think that he has the support of the people, or the Regency Council, or anything similar, but I think that he has a hold on the mechanics of the Dragon's Throne that will be nearly impossible to break. Whatever his eventual goal, I think he is confident in his success towards it.

Nevertheless. I checked in and out of a number of hotels, and used a number of passes, and dropped names into a number of difficult conversations that I threw my Bureaucracy skill into. In most cases, some city guards coincidentally happened to show up not long after, but whoever they were looking for, I am afraid they were disappointed to not find.

After four days of that, the guards were growing less enthusiastic in their arrivals, and rather more cursory in their investigations. After another four days, they hardly came at all.

I have arranged to have some of the party's keys inscribed with names and distributed to urchins - and taught those who did not already have it a few ranks of Bureaucracy - and I have dispensed another double handful of passes, so that the merriment may continue even after I leave the city. I think that, for those who keep their heads down and refrain from causing an obvious commotion, it may now be less dangerous to visit, as there is a virtual army of youngsters crying wolf at every opportunity.

Yours,

Zhuai


My dear Lijuan -

Did you know that Willow is in the Dragon's Throne, and has been for some months? Something about not having the correct exit paperwork - I was unable to determine more without causing an obvious commotion, so I thought I would advise that you let Cai Wen know.

Yours,

Zhuai